ZenithOptimedia

I nabbed this one off of the IAB newsletter. Interesting for those looking ahead for 2011 - and here are my thoughts when considering local differences to these questions from an Australian media perspective.

Where do you expect to see steepest growth curve in ad spend in 2011?
I think the steepest spend curve Australia is likely to see is investment in online video then social then mobile. Certainly from the media owners I have seen recently significant investment is underway in increasing video inventory moreso than device content for mobile or social.  Given Australia's relative infancy in terms of the video market too, this seems a more comfortable place to expect spending.  That said I think Social and mobile will continue to grow at a consistent rate in 2011.

Where do you see the biggest change in the industry taking place?
The sentiment here seems to echo ongoing US hysteria about data ownership, privacy and so on. From my perspective and due to the slow adoption of ad exchanges and the relatively low profile of the data market here in AU this is less of a pressing issue for 2011.  I think the biggest focus at least from my end will be in metrics and measurement as agencies and clients seek to more simply convey success and accountability to our clients across more channels and in clearer smarter and more dynamic ways.

As far as the search and pay wall comments i think these trends stand for the AU market?

What do you think?

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IAB_member_prediuctions_for_20.zip (22 KB)

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Shopper survey.pdf (433 KB)

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Shopper survey.pdf (433 KB)

A week ago or so I prepared a little on-line survey around shopping for shoes online.

Here are the results.

- for those who participated - thank you.

and the spoof

(via @mumbrella)

Bear in mind that their network is smartphone skewed as they serve across a large number of applications. Charts represent access by operating system not handset penetration.

Googles mobile traffic is climbing sharply a result of smartphone popularity.

The BIG mover is of course Android - increasing from 2% to 16% since April 2010.  WI-FI also raised my eyebrows, I wonder how much of that is accessed via Maccas :) ?

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Charts_-_The_State_of_Mobile_i.zip (34 KB)

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State of Mobile (Australia).pdf (150 KB)

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Click here to download:

State of Mobile (Australia).pdf (150 KB)

Unless like me you are a leave to the last minute Christmas shopper the shopping rush is a buyers playground these days.  Not only does every shop appear to be on perpetual sale, but of course we can now buy online domestically and overseas with the almighty dollar.  Adding more spice to this mix are the likes of social shopping networks Groupon in the US which offer deals to consumers across a broad range of gear, eBay that has unprecedented reach and now has daily deals with sizable discounts.  

Now this market space has certainly evolved in the past year, but step forward to 2010 and enter a new suite of mobile apps tat work with barcode scanning technology to identify an find best price for that item.  I downloaded one such app (shop savvy) this morning and was instantly getting prices and where to buy advice form the app fro a range of crap off my desk.  Impressive to say the least. The app also allows users to add to the data-base of products via uploading images and descriptions & also provides reviews.

This Mediapost article states that the increase in usage in the US alone for barcode scanners has seen a 30 fold increase.  

Here's to consumer empowerment - but this is going to make it increasingly harder to poor old bricks and mortar retailers

Relying on Vivaki The Pool learning (opt in video view works 10 times better), Google launched two new formats of video ad selectors:

1. True View Instream plays as a pre- or mid-roll against short or long form content.The advertiser will be charged only when the viewer has watched 30 seconds of an ad or to its completion.
2. True View InSlate (Pilot) would play against long form video content. The advertiser will be charged only when viewer chooses to watch its ad.

Ad Exchanges are forecasted to play a key role. Real time bidding ad buyers will use their own data to deliver the best ad to the right audience.
Today Google already records more bids than all Stock Exchanges combined.

Prediction 3 - Mobile, the number one Screen

Everyone will be connected everywhere.
Augmented reality set to drive mobile advertising.

Prediction 4 - 5 metrics to be become more important than the clicks

Brand metrics will become the main focus for advertisers (engagement rate, web search activity...).
New Ad Effectiveness Studies will enable access to results analysis in 2 days (vs 30 days today).

Prediction 5 - 75% of ads sociably enabled

Opportunity to choose the ad to watch, comment on it and share.
2 way communication between advertisers and consumers will prevail.

Prediction 6 - Rich Media to represent 50% of brand campaigns

Today the figures is closer to 6%. However the more engaging the ad is the more consumers interact with it.
Interaction rate grows by 17% when video is added in creative.

 Prediction 7 - Online display to represent a $50 Billion Industry by 2015

YouTube has launched TrueView, and a website to explain how they work. http://www.youtube.com/t/advertising_trueview

In their words:

TrueView Video Ads are a family of formats that give viewers choice and control over which advertisers' messages they want to see and when. We charge you only when a viewer has chosen to watch your ad, not when an impression is served. Since you pay only when viewers watch your video ad, you can easily increase or decrease your budget depending on objectives.

This format of video ads (user chooses) is fast becoming the way to deliver video.  Hulu run these, as do Fairfax locally on their streams, this format was also highlighted by Vivaki's Pool research - released in 2010 - where this was tested and proved to offer the best user experience and brand engagement metrics when tested against other in-stream and use initiated formats.

Where Google and YouTube take Fairfax and Hulu's models a step forward is to offer these ad plays on a cost-per-view - a much better option for advertisers than the CPM models that are more commonly attached to this ad format. It's great that we can rely on Google to provide a competitive edge to pricing, it might force others to reconsider.